Trakx Weekly Update: From Missiles to Stabilisation – Crypto Finds Its Footing as Iran Fear Recedes

Key Crypto Market Figures

CTIs Weekly Performance

Digital asset markets stabilised last week as the acute phase of Iran-driven panic receded, with Bitcoin holding firm around $67,750 — virtually unchanged week-on-week. The Fear & Greed Index recovered from Extreme Fear to Fear territory, a meaningful improvement at the margin even as the geopolitical situation remains unresolved.

Last week marked a tentative stabilisation for digital assets after one of the most turbulent fortnights of 2026. Bitcoin traded around $67,750 — essentially flat versus the prior week’s close of $67,849 — a resilient performance given the scale of headwinds still in play.

The Iran-Israel conflict, which had triggered a cascade of forced selling the prior week — including over $450M in liquidations and the first simultaneous outflows across Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana spot ETFs in 2026 — showed signs of de-escalation. Oil pulled back from its peak above $103, and the gold-to-crypto rotation that had been hammering digital assets through mid-March partially reversed, providing a modest tailwind. The Fear & Greed Index recovered from its Extreme Fear reading of 8 to settle back in Fear territory — a meaningful improvement at the margin, even if sentiment remains fragile.

The conflict has not been resolved, however. Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint — which together carry a significant share of global seaborne oil — remain a live risk. Any renewed escalation would quickly reverse the recovery in sentiment and re-ignite the oil price shock that rattled financial markets through the second half of March.

Against this backdrop, the crypto market’s ability to hold its ground speaks to the resilience of structural demand. Total crypto market cap contracted only modestly from $2.340T to $2.320T, while Bitcoin dominance held at 58.0%, reflecting continued rotation into the market’s safest harbour within the asset class. The Trakx Top 10 Crypto CTI declined to USDc 434.5 from USDc 442.3, extending the year-to-date drawdown to -27.2%.

On the structural front, institutional momentum around tokenisation continued to build quietly in the background. Invesco took over Superstate’s $900M tokenised Treasury fund USTB, joining BlackRock and Franklin Templeton in what is now a $12B tokenised US Treasury market. Securitize and NYSE signed a Memorandum of Understanding to develop tokenised securities markets — a reminder that the long-term infrastructure buildout for RWAs is accelerating regardless of short-term price action.

Best & worst CTIs of the week

Best CTIs

• Trakx NFT Metaverse: +3.0% — Speculative assets attracted opportunistic buyers as sentiment began recovering from Extreme Fear lows.
• Trakx Meme: +0.9% — Meme coins’ low correlation to macro and geopolitical risk provided a modest cushion in an otherwise difficult week.
• Trakx BTC Momentum: 0.0% — The strategy’s defensive design preserved capital by dynamically reducing Bitcoin exposure amid the volatility.

Worst CTIs

• Trakx Cardano Ecosystem: -6.2% — Broad altcoin selling pressure overwhelmed any positive tailwind from ADA’s new digital commodity classification.
• Trakx CTI AI Agents: -6.7% — Profit-taking accelerated sharply after a strong month-to-date run (+10.2%), hitting one of the market’s most volatile sub-sectors hard.
• Trakx Lending: -8.1% — Elevated risk aversion and reduced appetite for leveraged DeFi strategies made on-chain lending the week’s worst-performing sector.

Sentiment & outlook

The recovery in the Fear & Greed Index — from Extreme Fear (8) to Fear (28) — is an encouraging signal, but it would be premature to call a bottom. The Iran war’s most acute market impact now appears to be behind us: oil has retreated from its $103+ peak, ETF outflows have slowed, and forced liquidations have subsided. The partial reversal of the gold-to-crypto rotation is a further positive sign.

That said, the conflict remains unresolved. The closure threats over the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb remain live risks that could swiftly reignite oil price volatility and risk-off flows. Stablecoin supply near record highs suggests significant capital is parked on the sidelines, ready to re-deploy once visibility improves. On-chain indicators remain constructive — exchange reserves at multi-year lows signal long-term holders are not selling. A durable recovery will require a clearer path toward de-escalation in the Middle East, a softer Fed tone, or both.

Sources: Trakx, Coingecko, Alphavantage

Market Trends

• Bitcoin whipsawed as Trump announces 5-day pause on Iran strikes, then Iran denies any talks — $415M in liquidations: CoinDesk
• Bitcoin steadies above $71,000 as oil drops below $100 on U.S. 15-point Iran peace plan: CoinDesk
• SEC & CFTC jointly classify 16 crypto assets — including BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP — as digital commodities: SEC.gov
• Deribit settles $14.16B in Bitcoin options — largest quarterly expiry of 2026 — triggering $450M in liquidations: 24/7 Wall St.
• Kraken becomes first crypto firm in history to receive a Federal Reserve master account: CoinDesk
• CLARITY Act advances with bipartisan stablecoin yield compromise, Polymarket gives 72% odds of signing: SpotedCrypto
• UK bans crypto donations to political parties effective immediately, pending legislative amendments: Lowenstein Sandler

Trakx CTIs Performance

Sources: Coingecko and AlphaVantage

*Return of bitcoin is calculated since 01/05/2020, while CTIs performances were calculated since their respective launch date.
**Includes simulated performance.
***The risk signal is determined according to the historical volatility level, the higher the riskier.

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Disclaimers: No Investment Advice. Index returns and statistics are for illustration only. Index returns do not reflect any transaction costs or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information provided in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the newsletter content as such. Trakx.io does not recommend that any cryptocurrency should be bought, sold, or held by you. Readers shall conduct their own due diligence and consult their financial advisors before making any investment decisions.