Trakx Weekly Update: Crypto Climbs, as does Caution

Key Crypto Market Figures

CTIs Weekly Performance

Digital asset prices extended their gains over the past week, though at a more subdued pace, with the Trakx Top 10 Crypto CTI rising just under 1%. Leading the pack was the Meme CTI, which rallied over 5%, while the DePin CTI lagged, falling nearly 7%.

Sentiment Dampeners: Jobs and Tariffs

Released a day early due to Friday’s Independence Day holiday, June’s non-farm payrolls report exceeded expectations, with the US economy adding 147,000 jobs—well above the consensus estimate of 110,000. In response, tradfi markets revised their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, now anticipating just 50 basis points of easing this year, according to the latest CME Fedwatch tool. This shift in outlook had a knock-on effect to digital asset prices tempering bullish momentum that had previously pushed Bitcoin close to surpassing its May all-time high.

Investor sentiment was further dampened by renewed trade war fears after President Trump announced that letters would be sent this week to trading partners detailing increased tariffs set to take effect on August 1—a delay from his earlier July 9 timeline. Trump could simply be using such tactics to pressure the main trading partners of the US into signing last minute trade deals, meaning such concerns will be short-lived. However, the rhetoric took a more combative tone when Trump declared that BRICS nations would face an additional 10% tariff for “aligning themselves with anti-American policies… no exceptions.” This more aggressive stance suggests motivations that are geopolitical as much as economic.

Private Matters

Last week, an early Bitcoin adopter made headlines after transferring 100 BTC—worth approximately $10 million—from a rare Casascius gold bar to other digital wallets. The move was prompted by concerns over the risks of storing such a large sum in a single physical asset. For those unfamiliar, Casascius Bitcoins are physical metal coins and bars created by Mike Caldwell in the early days of Bitcoin. Each piece contains a private key, hidden beneath a tamper-evident hologram, that unlocks the corresponding amount of BTC stored in a digital wallet. In addition to their face-value in Bitcoin, these items often carry collectible premiums due to their historical significance and limited supply. Caldwell ceased production in November 2013 after the US Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) required him to register as a money transmitter. Of the nearly 28,000 Casascius coins and bars minted, around 10,000 have already been “peeled”—i.e., the private key revealed and funds moved. Only 35 of the 100-BTC bars remain intact.

Unfortunately, the owner of the bar posted his private key on an online forum forgetting that their private key also entitled them to claim Bitcoin Cash and BSV tokens created by hardforks after the original coin was minted. Together, those tokens were worth over $50,000—and were promptly swept from the compromised wallet. Despite the mishap, the loss likely stung less given the magnitude of the original return: a $500 investment turned into $10 million.

Sources: Trakx, Coingecko, Alphavantage

Market Trends

• U.S. June Jobs Data Blows Through Forecasts, With 147K Added, Unemployment Rate Falling to 4.1%: CoinDesk
• Altcoins XRP, SOL, DOGE Slump as Trump Reignites Trade Tensions, Passes ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’: Decrypt
• Accidental whale redeems 100 BTC Casascius gold bar: Cryptopolitan
• OpenAI says Robinhood tokens are not equity in the company: Cointelegraph
• More Bitcoin? Crypto Should Account for Up to 40% of Portfolios, Influential Financial Advisor Says: Decrypt
• ‘You’re too disorganised’: Ethereum Foundation’s boss lays out turnaround as opportunities multiply: DLNews

Trakx News

• Lionel had a great time attending ethcc in Cannes last week and connecting with so many brilliant people. Great to meet those of you who were there!
• Read about how James Howells mistakenly threw out 7,500 Bitcoin worth $800 million in our latest Insight post.

Trakx CTIs Performance

Sources: Coingecko and AlphaVantage

*Return of bitcoin is calculated since 01/05/2020, while CTIs performances were calculated since their respective launch date.
**Includes simulated performance.
***The risk signal is determined according to the historical volatility level, the higher the riskier.

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Disclaimers: No Investment Advice. Index returns and statistics are for illustration only. Index returns do not reflect any transaction costs or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information provided in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the newsletter content as such. Trakx.io does not recommend that any cryptocurrency should be bought, sold, or held by you. Readers shall conduct their own due diligence and consult their financial advisors before making any investment decisions.