Trakx Weekly Update:Crypto Decoupling

Key Crypto Market Figures

CTIs Weekly Performance

Digital assets displayed remarkable strength over the past week despite ongoing turbulence in tradfi markets due to ongoing tension in the Middle East. As a result, our flagship large cap Top10 Crypto CTI, gained just under 10% over the past week. The strongest performer was the NFT Metaverse CTI, which rallied over 15%, while at the other end of the performance rankings, the worst performer was the BTC Momentum CTI, following its flat return over the preceding seven day period.

Tame US Inflation (For Now)

US consumer price inflation behaved itself last month, with the February data coming out bang in line with consensus expectations. However, if ever there was a case of macro releases being old news it is now. Of far greater importance is the evolution of crude oil prices, whose volatility has surged since the start of US/Israeli air strikes on Iran. With the Iranians effectively closing the Straits of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s crude flows (or rather should flow), prices surged to over $100 per barrel. Even reports that the 30 members of the IEA had agreed to release more than 400 million barrels of crude from emergency global reserves (the largest ever release from the reserves at more than double that put into the market after Russia’s invasion in 2022), failed to have much impact. As a result, crude oil prices are up almost 40% since the start of the conflict.

Moreover, it is not just crude oil prices that are being impacted by the lack of shipping passing through this narrow stretch of water. It is a transport route for over 20% of LNG and nitrogen-based fertilizers (a major downstream product of natural gas), so the longer the strait remains closed, the greater the potential impact on inflation and, even more importantly in terms of monetary policy, inflation expectations. Investors will get an early read on how central banks are assessing this macro shock with seven central banks – including the Fed, the ECB and the BoJ – all set to hold policy meetings this week.

20 Millionth Bitcoin Mined

Last week, at block height 939,999, the Bitcoin network issued the 3.125 BTC block reward to the mining pool Foundry USA, pushing Bitcoin’s circulating supply beyond 20 million coins for the first time. With the protocol’s hard cap set at 21 million, this milestone means that fewer than one million Bitcoin remain to be mined. However, the remaining supply will enter circulation extremely gradually due to Bitcoin’s programmed issuance schedule, which halves the mining reward roughly every four years (the next halving event—expected in April 2028—will reduce the block reward from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC). As a result, the final coins will not be mined until around 2140.

While largely symbolic, crossing the 20 million threshold reinforces one of Bitcoin’s defining economic characteristics: its fixed and predictable supply. Unlike fiat currencies, whose issuance is determined by policymakers, Bitcoin’s monetary policy is embedded in code and enforced by its decentralized network, which underpins its usefulness as a store-of-value. To put this scarcity into perspective, with a global population of roughly eight billion people, even an equal distribution of the full 21 million supply would amount to just 0.002625 BTC per person—around 262,500 satoshis, the smallest unit of Bitcoin (there are 100 million sats per coin). In practice, the distribution is far more concentrated, making Bitcoin’s effective scarcity even greater.

Staking Expansion

Staking activity continues to grow across major proof-of-stake networks, with Ethereum at the forefront. Last week, BlackRock’s iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHB)—the firm’s first crypto fund to incorporate staking—began trading on Nasdaq, marking a significant milestone for institutional participation. Roughly 37.5 million ETH, or about 31% of the circulating supply, is now locked in staking, with the validator queue expanding as both retail and institutional investors seek yield from securing the network. At current annual rewards of approximately 3.5–4.0%, staking is increasingly viewed as a base yield for crypto, reinforcing Ethereum’s role as a foundational settlement layer. Meanwhile, developers are simplifying participation through one-click staking and advanced validator technologies, lowering technical barriers and further broadening access to network rewards.

Sources: Trakx, Coingecko, Alphavantage

Market Trends

• U.S. February CPI matches forecasts, reinforcing expectations for no near-term rate cuts: CoinDesk
• FED Rate Decisions Vs Bitcoin Next Week: Seven Central Banks Inflation Test: YahooFinance
• Bitcoin Outperforms Gold, Stocks During Iran War: Decrypt
• Bitcoin’s mined supply hits 20 million milestone, leaving final 1 million BTC to be issued over next 114 years: The Block
• BlackRock debuts staked ether ETF as demand grows for yield in crypto funds: CoinDesk
• Trump-linked memecoin insiders move $31M in tokens to Binance as price collapses 96%: CryptoSlate
• US-Israeli war with Iran forces TOKEN2049 cancellation: Protos

Trakx News

• Last week, Trakx published a blog post on Len Sassaman, considered one of the more credible candidates for Satoshi Nakamoto.

Trakx CTIs Performance

Sources: Coingecko and AlphaVantage

*Return of bitcoin is calculated since 01/05/2020, while CTIs performances were calculated since their respective launch date.
**Includes simulated performance.
***The risk signal is determined according to the historical volatility level, the higher the riskier.

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Disclaimers: No Investment Advice. Index returns and statistics are for illustration only. Index returns do not reflect any transaction costs or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information provided in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the newsletter content as such. Trakx.io does not recommend that any cryptocurrency should be bought, sold, or held by you. Readers shall conduct their own due diligence and consult their financial advisors before making any investment decisions.