Trakx Weekly Update: Crypto Shaken By Geopolitics

Key Crypto Market Figures

CTIs Weekly Performance

Digital asset prices came under pressure over the past seven days, driven largely by escalating geopolitical tensions. Our benchmark large-cap Top10 Crypto CTI dropped nearly 9%, reflecting widespread market weakness. Even our strongest performer, the BTC Momentum CTI, slipped by 1.4%, while the AI CTI suffered the steepest loss, down almost 20%

Geopolitical Jitters

The main question on investors lips for much of the past last week was “Will he, won’t he?” – referring to whether President Trump would authorize US military involvement in the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict. Early in the week, Trump and his advisors signalled readiness to approve a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, including the heavily fortified Fordow site, which only the US has the bunker-busting bombs capable of destroying. This hawkish posture triggered an initial 5% drop in our Top10 Crypto CTI. However, markets recovered midweek when Trump clarified that while operational plans had been approved, a final decision would come within two weeks. Many interpreted this as a delay or de-escalation. Unfortunately for the bulls, Trump gave the green light over the weekend, and digital asset prices tumbled further in response.

Backing The Bill

More constructively, the US Senate, as expected, approved its stablecoin GENIUS Act by a healthy majority of 68-30 as some Democrats broke from their more crypto-sceptic party colleagues and decided to support the bill. A day prior to its passage JP Morgan filed a trademark application for JPMD, a digital “permissioned” deposit token that will run on Coinbase’s Base blockchain, which will provide JP Morgan clients with the ability to settle transactions 24/7 including cross-border transactions. While clearly a long way from the original cypherpunk ideals that motivated Satoshi to invent Bitcoin 16 years ago, what JP Morgan’s actions confirm is that crypto payment rails are clearly superior to the existing tradfi infrastructure and, as such, represent the future for international finance.

Circle Rallies On Stablecoin Optimism

One of the biggest winners from the Senate’s GENIUS Act vote was Circle, the recently IPOed stablecoin issuer. While the legislation must still pass the House of Representatives, which has its own alternative STABLE bill, the broad Senate support signals that US lawmakers are increasingly open to fostering a leadership position in digital assets. Circle, as the largest regulatory-compliant stablecoin issuer, is well positioned to benefit once the legislation is finalized. (Tether remains the largest stablecoin issuer globally but does not currently meet GENIUS Act standards.) Investor optimism was evident: Circle’s share price surged 40% on Wednesday following the Senate vote.

Sources: Trakx, Coingecko, Alphavantage

Market Trends

• Bitcoin Dips Below $100K as Iran Moves to Shut Strait of Hormuz: Bitcoin.com
• Senate Passes Landmark Stablecoin Bill in Major Boon for Crypto Industry: Decrypt
• JPMorgan moves further into crypto with stablecoin-like token JPMD: CNBC
• Circle Rockets After Stablecoin Bill Clears Senate, Pushes Post-IPO Rally to Over 500%: CoinDesk
• Elon Musk’s X accelerates fintech pivot with plans for in-app payments and trading: CryptoSlate

Trakx News

• Just returned from an exciting trip to the UAE, where Lionel and Michael Teryazos had productive meetings with a wide range of companies — from CFD players to brokers and crypto firms. There was strong traction and a clear appetite for distributing CTIs, which reinforces the validity of Trakx’s new B2B2C strategy. Great momentum building in the region!

Trakx CTIs Performance

Sources: Coingecko and AlphaVantage

*Return of bitcoin is calculated since 01/05/2020, while CTIs performances were calculated since their respective launch date.
**Includes simulated performance.
***The risk signal is determined according to the historical volatility level, the higher the riskier.

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Disclaimers: No Investment Advice. Index returns and statistics are for illustration only. Index returns do not reflect any transaction costs or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information provided in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the newsletter content as such. Trakx.io does not recommend that any cryptocurrency should be bought, sold, or held by you. Readers shall conduct their own due diligence and consult their financial advisors before making any investment decisions.