Trakx Weekly Update: Fed Uncertainty and OG Bitcoin Selling Weighs on Crypto Sentiment

Key Crypto Market Figures

CTIs Weekly Performance

Digital asset prices remained under pressure over the past week, as reflected by the nearly 7% drop in our flagship large-cap Top10 Crypto CTI. Despite the general weakness, there were notable exceptions: the Cardano Ecosystem CTI outperformed with a 13% gain, while at the other end of the spectrum, the CEX CTI fell by more than 10%, marking the largest decline over the preceding seven day period.

US Data Vacuum

Contrary to the initial predictions of online betting markets, the current US government shutdown is now the longest on record having exceeded the 35 day shutdown in 2018-19. One consequence of the shutdown is an absence of official macro data that investors use to inform their investment decisions. Most critical of all is the monthly US jobs report because it is acts as a key barometer for the US economy. Just like nature, financial markets abhor a vacuum, so investors are relying instead on private data sources, and the signal from them is not great.

The monthly Challenger report published last week showed over 153,000 layoffs in October, the highest October reading since 2003. According to the report, AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs have been driving US firms to tighten their belts and implement hiring freezes. These findings reinforce the view that the US labour market is losing momentum, a trend already visible in recent official reports. Given the Fed cut rates in September citing softer hiring, investors are anticipating a third consecutive cut at the December FOMC meeting. However, Chair Powell’s recent comments suggested such an outcome is far from certain given persistent inflation concerns. This tension within the Fed’s dual mandate—balancing employment and inflation—has created an uneasy backdrop for risk assets, contributing to the recent digital asset pullback and a marked decline in sentiment, with the Fear and Greed Index firmly in “fear” territory.

OG Bitcoin Selling

With the price of Bitcoin sliding back towards the psychologically-significant $100,000 mark, crypto twitter was flooded with charts and news reports detailing that long-term Bitcoin holders —some inactive for over a decade— sold more than 400,000 coins over the past month. This wave of selling rattled investors, particularly since the timing aligns with the four-year historical Bitcoin cycle, leading some to believe the market top may be in and a new bear phase beginning. However, as we outlined in our recent October 2025 update (see link below),we do not share this bearish outlook.

An alternative perspective came from Jordi Visser, who recently published a blog post suggesting long-term holders are simply taking profits (involving life changing sums in many instances) after Bitcoin’s rise above $100,000—akin to early investors cashing out during an equity IPO. This analogy underscores a maturing crypto market, where wealth realization and broader investor participation mirror patterns long familiar in tradfi.

Sources: Trakx, Coingecko, Alphavantage

Market Trends

• The Fed’s Turning Hawkish as This U.S. Employment Indicator Flashes Red: CoinDesk
• Bitcoin’s ‘IPO moment’ means the days of 1% BTC allocations are over, Bitwise CIO says: TradingView
• Bitcoin ETFs snap six-day outflow streak with $240M inflows: Cointelegraph
• Trump crypto advisor says Clarity Act ‘full steam ahead’ despite gov shutdown: DLNews
• Developer of Bitcoin App Samourai Sentenced to 5 Years in Prison: Decrypt
• Zcash soars 1,486% in 3 months and reaches highest price since 2018: CryptoSlate

Trakx News

• Ryan Shea recently published his October 2025 monthly update examining the four-year crypto cycle and the rise of digital asset treasuries (DATs).
• Save the date: We are hosting an AMA for all TRKX holder with our CEO Lionel Rebibo on Monday November 17 at 18h CET.
• Last week Canton Coin, the native token of Canton Network which Trakx joined in early September, officially listed on several crypto exchanges.

Trakx CTIs Performance

Sources: Coingecko and AlphaVantage

*Return of bitcoin is calculated since 01/05/2020, while CTIs performances were calculated since their respective launch date.
**Includes simulated performance.
***The risk signal is determined according to the historical volatility level, the higher the riskier.

Trakx is a global fintech company creating new standards for digital asset investments. Through our trading platform, we offer thematic Crypto Tradable Indices (CTIs) and customised solutions, providing sophisticated investors with a high degree of compliance, custody and liquidity.

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Disclaimers: No Investment Advice. Index returns and statistics are for illustration only. Index returns do not reflect any transaction costs or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information provided in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the newsletter content as such. Trakx.io does not recommend that any cryptocurrency should be bought, sold, or held by you. Readers shall conduct their own due diligence and consult their financial advisors before making any investment decisions.