Trakx Weekly Update: Modest Gains As Fed Rate Cut Odds Rise

Key Crypto Market Figures

CTIs Weekly Performance

Last week, digital assets traded sideways to slightly higher, with our benchmark large-cap Top10 Crypto CTI gaining 1.7%. Leading the Trakx indices was the Meme CTI, which jumped more than 7%, while the DePin CTI lagged with a 1.8% decline over the seven-day period.

Soggy US Jobs Boosts Fed Rate Cut Odds

With US growth moderating and no clear signs yet of second-round inflation effects from the Trump tariffs (this week’s CPI release will be closely watched), tradifi investors had almost fully priced in the Fed resuming its easing cycle at the September 16–17 FOMC meeting after a nine-month pause. Friday’s US jobs report reinforced those expectations: non-farm payrolls rose by just 22,000 in August, less than a third of forecasts. That weak data not only locked in expectations for a rate cut but also sparked speculation of a larger move. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, investors see a 90% chance of a 25bp cut and a 10% chance of a 50bp cut. Easier monetary policy would typically support crypto prices by boosting global liquidity, but the benefits depend on avoiding a recession — a risk that has grown in light of the deterioration in the US labour market, tempering bullish sentiment in digital assets.

WLFI Token Launch

The Trump family deepened their crypto involvement last week with the public launch of $WFLI, the governance token of World Liberty Financial, the decentralized platform they co-founded in September 2024. The token surged at launch before retracing about a third, but early buyers still secured outsized returns (between 5X and 15X) on their initial purchases. The biggest beneficiaries, at least on paper, are the Trump family themselves: Donald Trump and his sons Eric, Donald Jr., and Barron collectively hold an estimated 22.5 billion tokens, valued at around $5 billion, making crypto likely the largest share of their net worth.

That said, not all $WFLI holders celebrated. Justin Sun, founder of Tron and an early backer of World Liberty Financial, had one of his wallets blacklisted after moving $9 million worth of tokens, according to blockchain analytics firms. No explanation was given, but the freeze likely related to private sale restrictions. Sun later insisted on X that the transfers were simply “generic exchange deposit tests.”

Stablecoin Buzz

Finally, as mentioned in last month’s Crypto Update stablecoins are one of the hottest sectors in crypto right now. Adding momentum, Fireblocks — a leading digital asset infrastructure company — announced the launch of a global payments network for fiat-backed cryptocurrencies. The initiative aims to support real-time transactions across more than 100 countries and unify today’s fragmented stablecoin ecosystem, particularly for institutional users. Fireblocks already has 40 participants on board, including Bridge (recently acquired by Stripe) and Circle, the stablecoin issuer that went public earlier this year.

Sources: Trakx, Coingecko, Alphavantage

Market Trends

• Bitcoin breaks out, but weak US jobs data breaks bulls again: Time to risk on or off?: Cointelegraph
• WLFI Token Falls on Debut as Governance Weighs Liquidity Fee Buyback Plan: Decrypt
• Fireblocks Launches Network for Global Stablecoin Payments: YahooFinance
• Knots leader says Bitcoin Core v30 could host illegal adult content: Protos
• Layer 2 Starknet Recovers After Four-Hour Outage: The Defiant
• European Central Bank chief urges stricter oversight of non-EU stablecoin issuers: The Block
• Bilionaire Ray Dalio reiterates warnings of dollar decline, suggests Bitcoin as a hedge: CryptoSlate

Trakx CTIs Performance

Sources: Coingecko and AlphaVantage

*Return of bitcoin is calculated since 01/05/2020, while CTIs performances were calculated since their respective launch date.
**Includes simulated performance.
***The risk signal is determined according to the historical volatility level, the higher the riskier.

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Disclaimers: No Investment Advice. Index returns and statistics are for illustration only. Index returns do not reflect any transaction costs or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information provided in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the newsletter content as such. Trakx.io does not recommend that any cryptocurrency should be bought, sold, or held by you. Readers shall conduct their own due diligence and consult their financial advisors before making any investment decisions.