Trakx Weekly Update: April 15

Weekly Update
• Apr 15, 2024
Trakx Weekly Update: April 15

Key Crypto Market Figures

Trakx Weekly Update: April 15

CTIs Weekly Performance

Crypto markets experienced a one-two combination punch last week, which contributed to the down draft in prices as evidenced by the Trakx Top10 Crypto CTI slipping over 8% in value. The best performer over the past seven days was the defensive Inflation Hedge CTI, which gained 2% on the week, whereas the DEX CTI sat at the bottom of the performance tables, falling by 28%.

The first blow came from the hotter than expected US CPI inflation, which exceeded consensus forecasts both on headline and core. However, most concerning of all for the inflation doves was the performance of the so-called SuperCore, which excludes food, energy and shelter. On this narrower definition, the annual rate of inflation jumped to 5%, its strongest reading since April last year, which definitely challenges the narrative that the last few months of above expected inflation were just a blip in an otherwise disinflationary environment. Unsurprisingly, the inflation data left Wall Street economists scrambling to back-peddle their Fed rate cut expectations, essentially playing catch-up to a market that now anticipates only 50bp of Fed easing by year-end. This Fed repricing put most asset prices under pressures – both bonds and stocks fell – and crypto was no exception.

The second blow was Iran's 300 strong drone/missile attack on Israel. The surge in geopolitical tension triggered a wave of risk aversion, leading to a sharp sell-off in crypto assets. While market leader Bitcoin shed almost 8% in knee-jerk reaction, altcoins were even harder hit with some, like Cardano and Avalanche, off between 15-20% on the news. Thankfully, Israel and its allies were able to successfully thwart the well-flagged attack and with Iran releasing a statement on Sunday saying “[T]he matter can be deemed concluded”, crypto assets prices staged a partial recovery. However, investors in both crypto and tradfi markets are now closely watching to see what, if any, response is forthcoming from the Netanyahu administration.

More idiosyncratic to crypto, the SEC sent a Wells notice to Uniswap Labs warning it faces a lawsuit amid allegations that its protocol and infrastructure breaches US securities law– a continuation of the US regulators’ unfortunate regulation via enforcement approach. The details of the notice have not been publicly revealed but judged on the basis of previous SEC cases, it seems likely the US regulator will claim Uniswap is offering unregistered securities to the public and/or failed to register as a broker or exchange. Uniswap founder Hayden Adams strongly rejected such accusations arguing the products they offer are “legal” based on the view that Uniswap is an open source software publisher that provides users with an interface to trade cryptocurrencies without the need for a centralized counterparty. As such, the case is important not just for Uniswap but the broader DeFi market, hence the relatively heavy losses seen in DeFi related tokens after the news broke.

If all that wasn’t enough to digest, don’t forget there is the Bitcoin halving event to look forward to this week. This event has added interest because it is the first post-ordinals halving, and the first sat of the first post-halving block is considered an “epic” sat due to its considerable scarcity. Indeed, according to some estimates this one sat could be worth up to $50m.

Trakx Weekly Update: April 15

Sources: Trakx, Coingecko, Alphavantage

Market Trends

  • U.S. CPI Comes in Faster Than Hoped, Rising 0.4% in March, 3.5% Y/Y: Coindesk
  • Bitcoin nosedives as political tensions escalate in the Middle East: Cointelegraph
  • Uniswap trading dips 10% following SEC Wells notice, UNI token hits multi-week low: Cryptoslate
  • BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Continues Rise, Crossing $15 Billion in Total Gains: Decrypt
  • Bitcoin Halving Has Crypto Miners Racing for 'Epic Sat' Potentially Worth Millions: Coindesk

Trakx News

Trakx CTIs Performance

Trakx Weekly Update: April 15

Sources: Coingecko and AlphaVantage


*Return of bitcoin is calculated since 01/05/2020, while CTIs performances were calculated since their respective launch date.
**Includes simulated performance.
***The risk signal is determined according to the historical volatility level, the higher the riskier.

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