Trakx Weekly Update: October 7

Key Crypto Market Figures

CTIs Weekly Performance

As detailed in our recently published Monthly Update (see below) October is commonly referred to as “Uptober” due to historically positive seasonals for crypto asset prices. Despite such apparent tailwinds, things got off to a wobbly start as highlighted by the Trakx Top10 Crypto CTI declining by 7% over the preceding seven day period. The best performer was the defensive Inflation Hedge CTI, which dipped 0.5%, while at the bottom of the performance stack was the NFT Metaverse CTI, which fell in value by 13%.

Hitting crypto investor enthusiasm was a surge in geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Last Tuesday Iran launched a 180-strong missile strike on Israel, a direct response to the IDF’s earlier assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. Given PM Netanyahu promised to retaliate to this second direct Iranian attack on Israel, combined with Israeli troops entering southern Lebanon as part of their efforts to safeguard the northern part of Israel, investors are clearly concerned that this conflict is very much in an escalatory phase. And, although it is extremely difficult to predict what the final outcome of this conflict will be, there is a clear potential for bad outcomes in the coming days and weeks and this is contributing to rising risk aversion.

One factor that helped crypto prices recover later in the week was a better than expected US jobs report. Not only did the US economy add 254,000 jobs in September, which was well-above consensus estimates, but the jobless rate dropped back to 4.1%. This is two-tenths lower than it was back in July, when the famous Sahm recession rule was triggered. While the robustness of US employment trends prompted investors to scale back their expectations of Fed tightening, following last month’s 50bp cut, this potential drag was more than offset by reduced concern about an imminent recession (a very negative crypto event as I have noted previously. As a result, despite the usual knee-jerk response at the time of the release, crypto prices ended last Friday’s session higher than where they started.

Finally, HBO last week released a trailer for a documentary which it claims will disclose the real identity of Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto – one of the great unsolved mysteries of the past two decades. Numerous media outlets have named someone who has been a long-standing candidate (their name currently tops the charts on the polymarket betting platform), but until the documentary drops on Wednesday no one knows for sure who HBO will say was responsible for designing the world’s first cryptocurrency. About the only thing we can be certain of at this stage is that it is not Craig Wright after his claims to be Satoshi were wholeheartedly rejected by the British High Court earlier in the year.

Sources: Trakx, Coingecko, Alphavantage

Market Trends

• Crypto prices tumble with Ethereum below $2,500 as Iran fires missiles at Israel: DLNews
• Bitcoin ‘Uptober’ Might Finally Be Getting Started—Here’s Why: Decrypt
• Trump Leads Harris on Polymarket After Musk Endorsement, but Trails in This Key State: CoinDesk
• Mystery creator of Bitcoin identified, new HBO documentary claims: Politico
• New Ethereum proposal aims to increase throughput by 50%: Cointelegraph

Trakx News

• Trakx’s public token sale began in early October and was extremely well received by the market: Bit2Me books closed in a day, and DAO Maker’s USDT book was over 8 times oversubscribed. This week, we are launching on other major launchpads: TrinityPads, Poolz, and Finceptor. Check out our X account to participate. The $TRKX token will be listed next week. This is a major milestone in Trakx’s development and opens the door to a wide range of benefits, including reduced trading fees on Tradable Crypto Indices.
• Ryan Shea’s September Crypto Monthly Update entitled “Good Vibrations” considers whether a bullish crypto scenario is in play as we head into the final quarter of 2024.

Trakx CTIs Performance

Sources: Coingecko and AlphaVantage

*Return of bitcoin is calculated since 01/05/2020, while CTIs performances were calculated since their respective launch date.
**Includes simulated performance.
***The risk signal is determined according to the historical volatility level, the higher the riskier.

Trakx is a global fintech company creating new standards for digital asset investments. Through our trading platform, we offer thematic Crypto Tradable Indices (CTIs) and customised solutions, providing sophisticated investors with a high degree of compliance, custody and liquidity.

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Disclaimers: No Investment Advice. Index returns and statistics are for illustration only. Index returns do not reflect any transaction costs or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information provided in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the newsletter content as such. Trakx.io does not recommend that any cryptocurrency should be bought, sold, or held by you. Readers shall conduct their own due diligence and consult their financial advisors before making any investment decisions.