Trakx Weekly Update: Crypto Comeback

Key Crypto Market Figures

CTIs Weekly Performance

Digital asset prices recovered last week, with our benchmark Top10 Crypto CTI climbing just over 5%. The standout performer was the AI Agents CTI, surging an impressive 28%. On the other end of the spectrum, the typically defensive Inflation Hedge CTI dipped modestly by 1.4%.

Trade Truce Boost

Crypto markets drew strength from encouraging developments in US–China trade relations. Both governments reportedly agreed on a framework for a potential deal, easing fears of an all-out global trade war. The announcement, made during the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, came days ahead of a planned meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. Investors welcomed the news, which suggested the US might suspend the threatened 100% tariff on Chinese exports in exchange for China’s one-year delay on new export controls for rare earth materials — the flashpoint of the current dispute. Digital assets reacted swiftly: major tokens rallied about 2% immediately after the headlines broke.

Imminent Fed Cut

Investor sentiment was further buoyed by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver another 25 basis-point rate cut at this week’s FOMC meeting — following last month’s reduction. The CME FedWatch Tool currently prices in a 96.7% probability of such a move. The latest consumer price report, delayed by the US government shutdown, showed inflation coming in below expectations on both headline and core measures. This outcome eased prior fears that tariffs would stoke inflation and gave the Fed cover to ease policy further. Still, market participants will be watching Chair Powell’s press conference closely, as his tone at the previous meeting was less dovish than expected given his description of the move as a “risk management cut”.

Centralization Issues

Finally, last week’s AWS outage, which temporarily disrupted several major blockchains, exchanges, and trading platforms put a dent in the core narrative that, unlike in the tradfi world, crypto operates as a fully decentralized and resilient financial system. While blockchain networks themselves are designed to be distributed, many of their supporting layers — such as nodes, APIs, data providers, and trading infrastructure — are heavily concentrated on centralized cloud services like Amazon Web Services. When AWS experienced downtime, it caused transaction delays, wallet sync failures, and halted trading activity on exchanges that relied on its servers. This revealed a key vulnerability: much of the crypto ecosystem’s functionality still depends on centralized infrastructure controlled by a few tech giants, not on the independent peer-to-peer networks that decentralization implies.

Sources: Trakx, Coingecko, Alphavantage

Market Trends

• Bitcoin Reclaims $115,000 as US–China Trade Hopes Lift Markets: Decrypt
• Bitcoin spikes to $112K on soft US CPI data as S&P 500 hits record high: Cointelegraph
• How today’s AWS glitch took down Coinbase, ETH L2s, and half the internet: CryptoSlate
• Trump pardons convicted Binance founder ‘CZ’ Zhao: Reuters
• Virtuals’ AI Agents Integrate with Coinbase Retail DEX on Base, VIRTUAL Up 30%: Coinedition
• Google’s quantum breakthrough makes Bitcoin threat ‘more real,’ scientists say: DLNews

Trakx CTIs Performance

Sources: Coingecko and AlphaVantage

*Return of bitcoin is calculated since 01/05/2020, while CTIs performances were calculated since their respective launch date.
**Includes simulated performance.
***The risk signal is determined according to the historical volatility level, the higher the riskier.

Trakx is a global fintech company creating new standards for digital asset investments. Through our trading platform, we offer thematic Crypto Tradable Indices (CTIs) and customised solutions, providing sophisticated investors with a high degree of compliance, custody and liquidity.

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Disclaimers: No Investment Advice. Index returns and statistics are for illustration only. Index returns do not reflect any transaction costs or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information provided in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the newsletter content as such. Trakx.io does not recommend that any cryptocurrency should be bought, sold, or held by you. Readers shall conduct their own due diligence and consult their financial advisors before making any investment decisions.